I weighed down all facts here and came down to going with AEK despite the situation and the focus factor that I was concerned and of course still am. However, the facts that: AEK is very motivated to get the deserved CL spot, being a very very united side to go down easily, playing with basically full squad, facing a side that plays only for pride with no difference if they win or lose this, then all these facts point to a very very posssible home win. 1.53 is not great and of course two months ago with same odds AEK lost to Panionios, but I believe this is very different and the reasons above force me to take this bet.
In head to head statistics Panionios wins only twice, rest aek trashed. I guess the fans support will be decissiv like allways on their ground. AEK want to play on Europe so they must win here today.